Where You Went to College Doesn't Matter...

....if you majored in a STEM subject:

http://ift.tt/1TElCyg

Quote:

Do Elite Colleges Lead to Higher Salaries? Only for Some Professions
A diploma from a highly selective college means higher pay in certain fields. In others, it makes almost no difference at all

.....
What we found: Diplomas from prestigious schools boost future earnings only in certain fields, while in other fields they simply don’t make a difference.

Specifically, for business and other liberal-arts majors, the prestige of the school has a major impact on future earnings expectations. But for fields like science, technology, engineering and math, it largely doesn’t matter whether students go to a prestigious, expensive school or a low-priced one—expected earnings turn out the same. So, families may be wasting money by chasing an expensive diploma in those fields.
.....
When prestige matters
In our study, we looked at about 7,300 college graduates 10 years after graduation. We divided their majors into several categories: business, engineering, science, social science, humanities, education and other. And we used three broad classifications for college type: selective, which covers elite schools and other highly competitive institutions; midtier; and less selective, which covers schools with open enrollment.

What we found startled us. For STEM-related majors, average earnings don’t vary much among the college categories. For example, we find no statistically significant differences in average earnings for science majors between selective schools and either midtier or less-selective schools. Likewise, there’s no significant earnings difference between engineering graduates from selective and less-selective colleges, and only a marginally significant difference between selective and midtier colleges.

What’s going on? For potential employers, the skills students learn in these fields appear to trump prestige—possibly because curriculums are relatively standardized and there’s a commonly accepted body of knowledge students must absorb. So, a student may not need to attend the best possible school to ensure a good salary after graduation. (It’s important to note that we controlled for numerous other factors that might influence postgraduation earnings, such as family income, race/ethnicity, gender, marital status, SAT score, postgraduate degree and age at graduation and more.)


Spoiler:



Where You Went to College Doesn't Matter...

Actuarial Life Consultants (Illinois #45342)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Life Jobs

Growing life consulting firm seeks to hire actuarial life Consultants / Sr. Consultants through Principal level in several US offices. Past consulting experience and work within the modeling realm desirable but not required. (#45342)

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Actuarial Life Consultants (Illinois #45342)

TIA Lesson D32 Question

ETA: James, I hope you don't mind me putting one of your paid-for questions on the AO. If this is a problem, let me know and it won't happen again.


Here's the question.

I did it close to right, where my final equation was:

18.57k = 10000 (1.04)^(-death) where I couldn't find the death variable, and got stuck.

However, the answer is:
18.57k = 10000


So, my question is... how do I know that the lump sum payment is paid at t=0 instead of t=death?

Is this just universal terminology that I need to memorize? It just seems weird to me that the lump sum is paid before the guy dies instead of right at this death.

Attached Images
 


TIA Lesson D32 Question

Five eyes

Anybody heard of this? Agreement between intelligence agencies in the U.S. UK Australia and New Zealand to share intelligence, and, conveniently allows them to spy on eachother to get around domestic surveillance concerns.

http://ift.tt/119FISY

In recent years, documents of the FVEY have shown that they are intentionally spying on one another's citizens and sharing the collected information with each other in order to circumvent restrictive domestic regulations on spying.


Five eyes

Exam C and Cat Modeling work

I'm curious - has anyone out there besides this guy (link below) taken Exam C and run Cat Models/done cat modeling?

http://ift.tt/1P7nUD0

If anyone has, what percentage of the exam do you feel was relevant to your work and what kind of work did you do? I'm a Cat Modeling Analyst with some exams wondering if it would give me a thorough understanding of frequency/severity distributions and stats I come across, or if it would just be massive overkill and i'd be better off just brushing up on stats and maybe skimming through "Loss Models"


Exam C and Cat Modeling work

Actuarial Services Manager (Pennsylvania #46016)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Health Actuary Jobs

Northeastern health plan business looking to hire strong FSAs/ASAs to ensure that the Actuarial Department provides top service to internal and external clients in pricing, forecasting, benefits, underwriting, compliance, etc. You will work on federal filings like actuarial certification and supervise analysts. Provide pricing tools and advise senior management on financial impacts of any contracts and/or arrangements. Several years of health/managed care actuarial experience and solid relational database skills desired. (#46016)

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Actuarial Services Manager (Pennsylvania #46016)

Exposure Measurement and Ratemaking

Dear friends,

Hope you are doing great. I would like to know what are the commonly used measures of exposure for health insurance and if there is any document that talks about ratemaking in health insurance.

Any help and/or guidance will be greatly appreciated,

Best regards,

Paul


Exposure Measurement and Ratemaking

We lock people up too easily.

Quote:

Report Finds Record Number Of U.S. Exonerations In 2015

HOUSTON (CBSDW.COM/AP) – The U.S. saw a record number of exonerations in 2015, with nearly 40 percent of the cases involving individuals who were exonerated in homicides, a new report shows.

The National Registry of Exonerations said in its report Wednesday that 149 people falsely convicted of crimes were exonerated last year. That’s 10 more than in 2014, the year with the previous highest total since the group began keeping records in 1989. The registry is a project of the University of Michigan Law School and has documented more than 1,730 such cases in the U.S.

Since 2011, the annual number of exonerations has more than doubled and there are now an average of nearly three exonerations a week, said Samuel Gross, a University of Michigan law professor and registry editor.
....
More at the link:

http://ift.tt/1P7nRXP

Make it harder to lock people up. Easier to throw away the key, IMO.

:judge:


We lock people up too easily.

Is this racially insensitive, part 916

http://ift.tt/1TElEpP

Quote:

Observing two cultural celebrations at the same time can lead to controversy, the Sacramento Kings learned this week.

On Monday night, the team hastily removed free “Year of the Monkey” T-shirts for fans from arena seats after complaints that the giveaway was racially insensitive on the first night of Black History Month.

The Lunar New Year, an Asian festival that will start on Monday in the United States, is the highlight of the Chinese calendar. Each year is based on a symbol of the Chinese horoscope, and this is the Year of the Monkey, the ninth of 12 animals in the cycle. But the team’s effort to celebrate seemed misplaced to some at the start of the annual celebration of African-American heritage.

Images of workers removing the shirts from seats at the Sleep Train arena, where the Kings were playing the Milwaukee Bucks, were published on social media.[...]

“We all need a lesson in sensitivity,” the Kings’ president, Chris Granger, told The Sacramento Bee.
Apparently a very, very sensitive Kings star objected to the shirts.


Is this racially insensitive, part 916

Do you really save money owning a home vs renting?

I see so many drawbacks to home ownership in high property tax areas unless you have a whole lot of cash liquidity.

1) Owning means anything breaks, you must fix it. No office to call to take care of it

2) Property tax plus mortgage + homeowners + utilities + Oven and fridge = more than rent

3) if value of property depreciates, you can't move out if need to relocate without being screwed because home value is worth less than mortgage owed for years

4) if value of property does go up, you pay higher property tax, higher homeowners insurance, and do not have any life improvement due to this property value gain, not even if you sell, because a similar place of residence to replace the one you sold would now too be more expensive than before

5) in some cities and towns, the property tax is like a rent in itself that NEVER goes away

So why own?


Do you really save money owning a home vs renting?

Re-filing taxes

Situation:

- Only official income in 2015 was summer earnings from internship

- used free turbo tax and it said I should get all income returned to me

- I also contributed stupidly to the 401k while at my internship and at the end of the summer they ended the account and disbursed the small $400 amount that had accumulated

- found out day after I submitted via e-file that I needed to report this via a 1099-R

- now I have to re-file my taxes which requires me to print out tax returns and mail them and pay for $35 turbo tax deluxe

My questions is, can I just skip all the hassle and not refile? My income was low enough I highly doubt I will be audited. And the fact that I am re-filing means that I am wayyy more likely to get audited now right? I had scholarship income I wasn't going to report and now I feel like refiling might make them find that.


Re-filing taxes

CRVM reserves

CRVM standards are set with company solvency in mind.
Reserves start negative and move to 0 end of year 1.

Are they positive at t=0 with the DPA?
Otherwise - how does a negative reserve in year 1 help ensure solvency? Is CRVM saying nobody dies during the first policy year?


CRVM reserves

Practitioner's journals

What journals do actuaries actually read/subscribe to? NAAJ? IME?


Practitioner's journals

MATE Practice Problems for Sale

The complete Fall 2015 MATE practice problem set. $65 delivered. No highlighting and very minimal underlining.
Pay via PayPal. PM me if interested.

Good luck to all taking the exam in May!


MATE Practice Problems for Sale

Predictive modeling in health

What are some of the hot applications of predictive modeling in health insurance today? Any journal articles or conference presentations to check out?


Predictive modeling in health

Why don't stocks also report "Annual Returns when throwing out the bad days?

It would be good to know for example, the maximum possible return one could have earned on say Apple or Google or an S&P500 exchange traded fund, if one managed to time the market perfectly and expose risk to the fund only on positive return market days, and assume 0% returns for all days in the red.

That measure could be useful. It tells something volatility may not be able to tell, nor expected rate of return. Rather it tells for that year, how much potential there is for gains if you are skilled at timing the market.


Such that

rate of return under perfect lucky timing the market (only exposed on green days)
X
Rate of return under perfect unlucky timing the market (only exposed on bad days)

= Annual return


Why don't stocks also report "Annual Returns when throwing out the bad days?

Why not auction off ballot spots?

Currently, if someone wants to get on a ballot, they pay people to go get signatures. The people signing have no idea who this person is and just go off the platform they are told. They also might worry about being judged for their signature, or just not like being bothered.

What if instead of paying the signature gatherers, who often don't care about politics, we put that money into the general fund? Bloomberg says the only reason good independents don't run is how hard it is to get on the ballot. I'm sure he would not mind paying a fee. We could set 9 spots and hold an auction over a 3 month period. The highest payers get on the ballot. Sound undemocratic? Why can't people give $5 each instead of their signature? I'm sure that would be competitive.

The state would get more money.
Independent candidates could cut to the chase faster.
Voters could still vote for who they want or write in 1 name.
We could leave half of the spots open to signatures.


Also, I still say all candidates, including minor party nominees, should all be on one big open primary, assuming we vote twice.


Why not auction off ballot spots?

What voting system do you prefer?

What do you think is the best voting system? Any you would want to replace your existing one?

*Politicians just want a system that makes voters feel like they were heard and that the government is valid.
*Voters want to feel like they can vote for their favorite candidate without the risk of it harming the overall result if their favorite loses.
*Experts say no such system exists, citing Arrow's Impossibility Theorem.
*I want a primary to general election system that can handle several applicants, channel voter scrutiny to the most likely winners, give everyone the feeling of choice and discussion, but also be simple enough to avoid fraud risks.

The reason federal senators are elected by the populous is because shortly prior to the civil war, voter strategy inside legislatures resulted in gridlock that prevented them from electing anyone.

In most races, the candidate with the most votes wins, even if not a majority. Many have a runoff between the larges two if there is no majority.
*Proponents say it is simple and forces compromises.
*Opponents say votes feel they can't vote for their first choice, and must instead rely on media polls, which some worry are inaccurate, probably deliberately.

Instant runoff voting lets voters rank candidates. 1st choices are looked at first, and the candidate with the fewest 1st choice votes is eliminated. Voters who lost their 1st choice get their vote transferred to their 2nd choice. This continues until there is a majority.
*This is the most strongly proposed single seat method. Voters feel like they can vote for their 1st and maybe get their 2nd if their first loses. However, if their 2nd is a weak centrist, whose voters 2nd choice is candidate #3, then the Those who ranked their 1st choice 1st will see their 3rd choice elected instead. With a large number of candidates, IRV has the effect of randomly choosing a moderately off center candidate, eliminating extremists, but also squeezing out centrists. Incumbents don't like the random factor, nor the fact they can be squeezed between two similar candidates in the first round.
*The greater complexity of IRV could lead to ballot counting mistakes, accidental or deliberate.

Condorcet voting also uses ranked choice and simulates every possible head to head runoff based on the rankings. The number of races climbs with the square of the number of candidates. Also, it is possible to have a smith set greater than 1. My biggest complaint is that an unknown candidate would likely be ranked between a favorite and a known enemy, leading to the unknown candidate winning. IRV would immediately eliminate an unknown candidate.

Multiseat proportional voting has much bigger districts which cost more to campaign to, but it offers a voice to everyone. Often ranked choice voting is used, and the counting can be much more complex than IRV or condorcet, requiring computers, which can be programmed to miscount on purpose. Proponents feel that the losers of a normal race see their votes wasted, no matter how competitive the race was. Opponents of proportional voting say that those elected are not accountable to a single competitive district.

Sortition is where a legislative body is elected at random from the voter body, maybe having some pre-qualifications first. The idea is that if voters are sampled proportionately, the probability is good that the selected body will match the overall views of the population at large. The ancient Greeks thought this was the only valid way to govern, though they did not have any pre-qualifications. Opponents complain they are not accountable to anyone, whereas proponents say they don't need to be, since they are the people. Politicians in fear of embarrassment will vote against their best judgement, whereas those elected by lot would not.
*I believe the lower house of a state body should be elected by sorticion, half female, half above the median age, same race ratio, but all passing minimum reading comprehension and economics exams.


Borda Count lets you give, say, 1-5 points to each candidate. It's big problem is voters can easily bury another strong candidate. This is why the founders specifically said voters shall have only 1 vote.

Approval voting lets you vote for as many candidates as you want, from 1 to n-1. It lets you vote for your favorite while still voting for a backup just in case.
*I like the simplicity of counting the ballots and avoiding vote splitting and especially squeezing of similar candidates.
*Opponents say that giving approval to a backup could cause that backup to beat your favorite.
*To appease the opponents and encourage less competitive voting, I say we should also let people label their favorite candidate. The favorites should be counted first. If there is a majority, that candidate should win outright. If not, we just look at the approval votes.
*I think we should allow 1 write-in as well, to attract more voters and show them if their candidate lost.


I like my modified approval voting for state senators, and pre-qualified proportionately sampled sortition for the lower house. Maybe you have another idea or preference or insight?


What voting system do you prefer?

Reinsurance basics

My friend is joining a reinsurance company from a primary. She's wondering if there are any papers she should look into reading to get a good grasp of what she's going to expect? In other words, are there reinsurance versions of Werner & Modlin and Friedland? Right now, she's working on reading Dave Clarks's Basics of Reinsurance Pricing.


Reinsurance basics

Taleo Errors

Hi,

I just got back an automatic rejection from Taleo specifically stating that I don't meet the requirements for a newly listed, entry position. Afaik, the only requirements were college degree plus an exam. Because Taleo is used for everything, I'm worried that I'm formatting a document incorrectly or something similar to get an automatic rejection.

So, are there common errors that people make when applying through Taleo? Is there a difference between using .docx and plain text?

Thanks


Taleo Errors

Exam C/4 ASM Study Manual For Sale

Selling my lightly used ASM study manual for Exam C/4
No missing pages or tears
A few highlights on a few pages in the first one-third, but the rest is brand new (did not use at all)

ASM Study Manual Exam C/Exam 4, 16th edition, Third Printing
Author: Weishaus
Purchase Price: $245.00+shipping

Selling Price: $110 including shipping
Chase QuickPay preferred or Venmo/Paypal accepted too. Thank you!


Exam C/4 ASM Study Manual For Sale

SOA sample question 87

In the solution from the SOA for E[X ^ 20], they get 18.
In my solution, I integrated S(X) frrom 0-20, where S(X) was from the first part of the distribution: S(X) = 1-.01X. I also got 18 from my integral.

The more I think about it, I am not sure if my approach is valid with a two-part distribution.
Is my approach valid, or did I just get lucky?


SOA sample question 87

Analyst, Rate Indications / VBA (New York #45948)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Casualty Actuary Jobs

International holdings company looking to hire a pricing analyst with FSA designation and VBA, excel and access skills. Knowledge of SQL preferred. Work will involve rate indications, pricing and reserving for various casualty products. (#45948)

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Analyst, Rate Indications / VBA (New York #45948)

Senior Product Analyst (Florida #46293)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Casualty Actuary Jobs

Homeowners property & casualty company seeks Personal Lines Product Analyst to support pricing and product development as they expand into new states. 4+ years of relevant experience and an understanding of underwriting, claims and/or product development functions desired. (#46293)

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Senior Product Analyst (Florida #46293)

Associate, Financial Analyses (Pennsylvania #46292)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Health Actuary Jobs

Health plan in Pennsylvania seeks skilled actuary to prep state and federal filings as well as develop models and prepare financial analyses. Own projects and direct/supervise junior actuaries. Great candidates will have strong database skills as well as ASA designation and MAAA membership. (#46292)

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Associate, Financial Analyses (Pennsylvania #46292)

Internship Cover Letter Advice

Looking for some way to cut back on this. It's about 75 words too long I suspect. Any suggestions?

Dear [Redacted],
I’m very interested in the actuarial internship that [Redacted] offers. [Head of actuarial department] recommended me to apply, among only a few others at University. I feel that I am a great fit for [Redacted] considering my experience, skills, and actuarial exam progress.

My experience would not only benefit [Redacted] during this summer internship, but they would allow me to succeed long-term. I currently work in one of the student life offices on campus, and have gained ample knowledge of excel while on the job. At this job, my main duty is to analyze and present expense data in a way that helps others make decisions about the future.

My skills are also very applicable to this opportunity. I have experience in excel, access and some working with SQL. My experience in SQL comes from in-class experience in Microsoft access. I am currently learning more SQL independently through various online resources. My non-technical skills include effective communication and presentation. I have strong interpersonal skills, and I’m an effective leader in group work settings.

I have one exam passed, and plan to pass another early in the summer. My aggressive strategy towards passing exams has been successful so far, and has allowed me to be semesters ahead of some colleagues in this regard.

Thank you for considering my qualifications for the actuarial internship position at [Redacted]. I would be very excited to join a team that has such a positive impact on those it serves. I would be happy to meet with you to further explain how I might fit this position. Please contact me via email or phone. I look forward to hearing from you.


Internship Cover Letter Advice

NSA backdoors

So the common refrain you hear from people who are OK with the NSA spying on US citizens is that you shouldn't care if the govt listens to you ordering pizza. The cliched "if you have nothing to hide..." argument that misses so many points

Now it is appearing more and more likely that the recent hacking of government systems by foreign spies may have been a result of them exploiting backdoors that the NSA covertly put in the hardware of private companies

http://ift.tt/1NOSgGm

The govt listening to me ordering pizza is wrong no matter what, even if some people don't care. The govt secretly weakening encryption standards and that allowing other countries to hack into our systems is unconscionable, and is what I warned about all along. Backdoors don't just work for the person who put them there


NSA backdoors

AVP, Actuarial Planning / Forecasting (Maryland #45934)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Life Jobs

Life insurance holding company in the northeast seeks sharp FSA to coordinate the construction and development of the actuarial elements of financial plans. You will perform forecasting across relevant accounting bases for the US and United Kingdom. Oversee models and coordinate with the SVP and chief actuary to ensure successful deliverables. MG-ALFA skills are desirable as well as about 10 years of life insurance/actuarial experience. (#45934)

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AVP, Actuarial Planning / Forecasting (Maryland #45934)

Director, Financial Modeling (New Jersey #45766)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Life Jobs

Life/annuities company in the northeast seeks FSA with several years of experience to oversee pricing and financial modeling efforts for funded transactions. Provide apt analytics insight and collaborate with corporate leaders to determine optimal pricing strategy. Strong actuarial background with things like pricing, GAAP, financial modeling, hedging, etc. experience desired. Strong communication and project management skills desired. ALM experience is a plus. (#45766)

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Director, Financial Modeling (New Jersey #45766)

Single contact lens for reading

Anyone else have this? As opposed to wearing reading glasses on the end of my nose and then looking over them for distance.

I tried it for the first time today. So far I'm liking it, but it's taking some getting used to.


Single contact lens for reading

Who do you believe is "more" honest

A lot of people seem to feel Trump is no beholden to anyone and no one is shaping his message and they love his honesty.

When I see Bernie Sanders I feel basically the same way, even though he is a life long politician

I will break poll down by parties


Who do you believe is "more" honest

Workaholics

Me likey.



Workaholics

Associate, Financial Modeling (New Jersey #45768)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Pension Jobs

Large life/annuities company in the northeast looking to hire ASA to play a key role in infrastructure and pricing development. You will lead financial modeling / pricing and analyze mortality demographics. Support securing approvals and supervise other quant staff. ALM experience is a plus. (#45768)

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Associate, Financial Modeling (New Jersey #45768)

National Debt

Haven't heard a lot about it this election cycle. It has always concerned me but I have to admit I never thought it would get as high as it is. $19 trillion now? idk how high it can go before it's just too much.


National Debt

What is ERM?

Hi.

I have already passed exams and I am gong to finish FAP. But I am confused with ERM. Is that only a module and an exam at the end? what is the other requirements?

Thanks,


What is ERM?

Actuarial Analyst

The Segal Group (www.segalgroup.net) is a leading benefits and HR consulting firm. Segal Group is an independent organization, headquartered in New York with nearly 1,000 employees throughout the U.S. and Canada. It is the parent of Segal Consulting, Sibson Consulting, Segal Select Insurance Services, Inc., and Segal Rogerscasey. On October 15, 2014, The Segal Group celebrated the 75th anniversary of its founding by Martin E. Segal (http://ift.tt/1NAcTGB).

ID# 112016SC

The Opportunity:
We are recruiting for an Actuarial Analyst-Entry for the Retirement Practice in our San Francisco Office. This position affords an immediate opportunity to apply analytical, problem-solving, communication and technology skills contributing to the development of solutions to challenging client issues. The Analyst will have access to and work under the guidance and mentoring of talented senior level staff and will work independently and on teams to deliver consulting services to a broad and diverse range of defined benefit clients. The Analyst will be encouraged to engage in continual learning and development activities with the goal to advance to higher level positions, and will be supported in pursing progress toward actuarial accreditation through our competitive exam program and policy.

The Role:
The Actuarial Analyst-Entry is responsible for the completion of actuarial valuations for multiemployer pension plans, public pension plans and other actuarial projects under the supervision of experienced actuaries. Projects will include completion of both valuation-related activities and addressing numerous special and emerging retirement plan issues posed by client organizations. Specific responsibilities include (but will not be limited to) researching and gathering information; reviewing and analyzing work products including plan data and financial statements; providing input to the development of solutions; creating and updating valuation programs and spreadsheet applications; assisting with report preparation and government filings. In addition, the Actuarial Analyst-Entry must work with the enrolled actuary and consultant to ensure effective presentation of results to clients.

Key Requirements:
The qualified candidate must have: a minimum of an undergraduate degree in Mathematics, Statistics, Actuarial Science or related discipline; completion of at least one actuarial exam with intent to attain actuarial accreditation; relevant computer and software skills (thorough familiarity with Microsoft Office applications); task management skills; detail orientation and organizational and analytical skills; demonstrated communication (oral/written) and interpersonal skills with ability to interact effectively with a diverse audience and to work independently with a strong work ethic.

** If you wish to be considered for this position, please send your resume to sfresumes@segalco.com.

Diversity and Inclusion at Segal:
At Segal we are committed to a culture of diversity and inclusiveness, as demonstrated through our recruitment, retention and employee development programs. We maintain an environment that respects and builds on the assets and talents of each person, valuing their differences including, but not limited to, gender, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, disability, generations, cultures, military status, well-being and flexibility. Maintaining a diverse and inclusive environment at Segal is critical to our success, as it allows us to attract and retain the best talent and to enable that talent to be successful in achieving his/her professional and personal goals. For Segal a diverse and inclusive workplace is a win/win, as it provides us the ability to leverage our top talent allowing us to provide innovative solutions to our clients.

We welcome you to voluntarily self-identify (i.e., Ethnicity, Disabled, Veteran status): http://ift.tt/1NAcVOH.


Actuarial Analyst

BE Premium Provision Cashflows

Hey guys, i hope you are well. I need your help. I work as an actuary at an insurance company at Greece so the general legislation is Solvency II. However i think that for my question it doesn't make any difference.

I need to calculate the cashflows of the best estimate of premium provisions. My problem has to do with the payment pattern that i should use. As of now i used the payment pattern of the claims provisions (basically it is the payment pattern of the chain ladder on payments' triangle). However, i would like to use another pattern because this one is very aggressive at the early quarters. Any suggestions?

Thank you very much in advance. I hope it is clear to you what i need.


BE Premium Provision Cashflows

Climate Change strongly linked to UK Floods

Quote:

Record December warmth is affecting large areas of the northern hemisphere, including most of Europe and the eastern US, while severe flooding hits places from Paraguay to the north of England.

Although scientists resist making a direct causal link between global warming and individual weather events, they say climate change tends to increase the intensity and severity of rainstorms, because a warmer atmosphere contains more moisture and energy. There is 4 per cent more moisture in the air over the world’s oceans today than there was in the 1970s, according to Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring at the UK Met Office.

December’s warmth in relation to long-term averages has been remarkable in the UK. In England the mean temperature of 9.5C is not only 5.1C above average but an amazing 2C above the previous record set in 1934 — usually monthly temperature records are beaten by a small fraction of a degree.


http://ift.tt/1SVL039


Climate Change strongly linked to UK Floods

Actuarial Assistant (Entry Level)

ACTUARIAL ASSISTANT

APPLY NOW
Date: Feb 1, 2016
Location: Kansas City, MO, US, 64108
Company: Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City
Position Title:Actuarial Assistant
Posting Date: 02/01/2016
Req ID: 5621

Position Summary

Provides background data support, analysis and recommendations for the rating, reserving and financial reporting policies of BCBSKC and its subsidiaries and provides systems and programming support across the Actuarial and Underwriting Division for their automated and manual systems.

Accountabilities

Creates spreadsheets, analyzes and interprets data.
Provides internal reports for Actuarial and Underwriting.
Uses databases of financial results to provide analyses as assigned.
Monitors and reports financial results and trends.
Assists in studies, surveys and special requests from BCBS Association and regulatory agencies.
Studies for and passes actuarial examinations and stays current on issues regarding the industry.
Assists with or manages the actuarial responsibilities for small group renewals.
Assists with or develops business requirements test scripts, and performs regression testing of software that calls for actuarial expertise.


Competencies

Delivering High Quality Work

Displaying Technical Expertise

Solving Complex Problems

Using Math

Minimum Requirements

Bachelor’s degree in mathematics, statistics, or other relevant academic discipline; or any combination of education and experience providing the types and levels of knowledge, skills, and abilities required by the job.
Completion of at least one actuarial exam
Ability to read, analyze and interpret general business periodicals, professional journals, technical procedures or government regulations.
Ability to write reports, business correspondence and procedure manuals.
Ability to effectively present information in one-on-one and small group situations to customers, clients, and other employees of the organization.
Ability to apply advanced mathematical concepts such as exponents, logarithms, quadratic equations and permutations.
Ability to apply mathematical operations to such tasks as frequency distribution, determination of test reliability and validity, analysis of variance, correlation techniques, sampling theory and factor analysis.
Ability to apply principles of logical or scientific thinking to a wide range of intellectual and practical problems.
Ability to deal with a nonverbal symbolism (formulas, scientific equations, graphs) in its most difficult phase.
Ability to deal with a variety of abstract and concrete variables.
Intermediate skill using a computer keyboard.
Preferred Requirements

Intermediate knowledge of and skill using Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office, including Word, Excel, Access, and PowerPoint preferred.

At Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City (Blue KC), we know that success starts with a diverse workforce. Our ability to work effectively as individuals and collectively as teams is a direct reflection of our ongoing dedication. The Blue KC business philosophy is to leverage diversity and inclusion to meet the complex and ever-changing needs of our employees, partners and customers we serve. Blue KC is truly committed to fostering an inclusive culture through equal opportunity and respect. Not accepting applicants from placement services, recruitment firms, and employment
agencies.

Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City will extend reasonable accommodations to qualified individuals with disabilities who are otherwise not able to fully utilize electronic and online job application systems. For assistance, please send an email to Recruiting@BlueKC.com.


EOE/M/F/Vets/Disability
Affirmative Action Employer
Equal Employment Opportunity


Nearest Major Market: Kansas City
Job Segment: Underwriter, Law, Mainframe, Actuarial, Compliance, Insurance, Legal, Technology


Actuarial Assistant (Entry Level)

Thoughts on TIA Practice Exams?

Hi guys,
Reached ADAPT EL 10 by doing level 7 Exam and got averages ranging 27-31/35
Then I switch my focus on TIA and I just finished doing TIA 1 and 2 exam and got 29/35 and 28/35 (no peeking & including stupid mistakes).

I really hope to ask for your opinions and thoughts about the similarity or the difference between TIA and actual exam =)


Thoughts on TIA Practice Exams?

Is there a February FA google group?

I plan to take the FA in mid to late February and am wondering if anyone started a google group.

Thanks!


Is there a February FA google group?

Schadenfreude thread

I figure this can be a thread for situations where you get some satisfaction out of the misfortune of others.

For a first entry, not sure if anyone else is following the drama on YouTube about the Fine Bros.

For the cliff notes, they create content that is creatively lazy - namely "reaction videos" in which they film people (like kids, seniors, YouTube "celebrities") reacting to viral videos or events.

Anyway - this genre of entertainment has been around for a long time, but they are the most successful channel of this content on YouTube with about 14M subscribers.

Last week they announced that they filed papers to trademark their "React" series - and it was ambiguous if they would take action against other reaction type videos to remove the content from YouTube. And they have, in fact, done that in the past - even trying to brigade the Ellen show when she did a "kids react" segment. In addition, they announced they would license their "format" so other people could create similar content - but of course they would need to pay a licensing fee.

The internet exploded with parody videos. Then the Fine Bros released ANOTHER video trying to defend their position but came off as condescending *******s. They have since removed this video.

The impact is that they have currently lost more than 250,000 subscribers over the last few days and people are livestreaming the fall in subscribers.

Below is a chart of the last few days:

http://ift.tt/1UE2Oh1


Schadenfreude thread

Excel Modeling with Class Modules

Has anyone here used class modules to design Excel modeling solutions? It has been a while since I've used modules but I'd like to find a good tutorial on using class modules from a financial modeling perspective. Does anyone have a useful link?


Excel Modeling with Class Modules

Japan's Negative Interest Rate Policy

http://ift.tt/1PO0rUA

Apparently it's like what Bank of America does with new checking accounts below minimum required debit balance ...a 0.1% fee for storing cash in the reserve of Japan. A fee for putting money in their treasury, not interest income

can't I then take a loan from Japan's reserve and use that money to invest in stocks, then get paid by both the stock gains and the negative interest expense gain on top of it?


Japan's Negative Interest Rate Policy

Regional actuarial organization meetings

Referring to stuff like CAGNY, CAMAR, etc.

Are they good for networking? Would speaking at one of them help your career/resume?


Regional actuarial organization meetings

Hillary is such a liar!

http://ift.tt/1PO0rUo

I read on clearpolitics and similar voting record sites that Hillary is in favor of stricter penalties for crime. Bernie is for lower penalties and reducing incarceration rates.

As Iowa approaches a close, Hillary is asking Iowan's what their most important issues is. Many are saying the high incarceration rates. Hillary is telling them that her number one priority will be to lower them, when she takes office. Liar!

Quote:

WAYNE FORD: So whether it’s Minneapolis, whether it’s Chicago or Ferguson, you have a lot of black people in this part of the world who are really concerned about criminal justice. Lady Justice, she needs to be color blind, but many times she’s not. We’re one of the highest-ranking incarceration of black men in the country. We’ve got some challenges. Hillary said that will be her number one priority, reforming criminal justice, once she gets to—once she gets in office.
This reminds me of 2006. I saw a video of the New York moderators asking her point blank if they would be her full time senator if elected senator of New York. They knew her history. She lied, "yes." Soon after being elected, she headed off on the campaign trail for president.


Hillary is such a liar!

Adapt for CFA level 2

Coaching Actuaries has launched an Adapt for CFA with the help of Mike Carmody, FSA, CFA (of StudyJAM fame) under the new AdaptPrep brand.

We just released our Level 2 Adapt question bank with all new questions / item sets for 2016. We plan on adding video solutions soon for the item sets.

Mike Carmody also has video lessons available for Level 2.

Check it out:
http://ift.tt/1PO0tvu

Currently there's a free trial available.

Let me know if you have any questions.


Adapt for CFA level 2

Adapt for CFA

Coaching Actuaries has launched an Adapt for CFA with the help of Mike Carmody, FSA, CFA (of StudyJAM fame) under the new AdaptPrep brand.

Check it out:
http://ift.tt/1PO0tf8

Level 1 and 2 available now. Level 3 coming soon. Currently there's a free trial available.

Just like on Coaching Actuaries, AdaptPrep offers:
  • Adapt question bank with tons of questions and Earned Level confidence
  • High quality video lessons
  • Solution videos

We've been really surprised at how many actuaries take the CFA exams! We think its a great choice!

Let me know if you have any questions.


Adapt for CFA

Is it appropriate to compare Hillary Clinton to Hitler?

Starting this thread at Sentinel's nudging.


Is it appropriate to compare Hillary Clinton to Hitler?

Black Sails: Starz

Anyone watch this show? I was surprised to not see a thread because I thought it was more popular. Maybe not. Being the mid-season break I picked this one to binge watch just because I always like pirates when I was a kid.

Still need to watch S1 season finale but so far this has been a great show and has pulled me in. I think they just premiered S3 a few weeks ago. I had no expectations going in so have been pleasantly surprised. It's not a gem in terms of Emmy caliber writing or anything but has been fun and the type where I don't want to stop watching and look forward to my next binge session.


Black Sails: Starz

FA DNMMR will get the same assessment when RETAKE?

I didn't submit the answers within 96 hours because of emergent reason. I wonder if I will get the same assessment when I retake FA?

Anyone has this experience before?

THX!


FA DNMMR will get the same assessment when RETAKE?

RETAINED Capital Modeling (Massachusetts #46260)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Casualty Actuary Jobs

Large mutual insurance company seeks FCAS with capital modeling and solid management experience. Candidates must have understanding of product management, strong analytical and problem solving skills, experience planning cash flow, and the ability to build out the capabilities of the economic capital model. This is a highly visible position with the opportunity to work with senior leadership. (#46260)

The post RETAINED Capital Modeling (Massachusetts #46260) appeared first on DW Simpson.



View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/1SA1fBA


RETAINED Capital Modeling (Massachusetts #46260)

Consulting Leader, Pensions (Switzerland #46295)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Pension Jobs

International consulting firm seeks Switzerland based consultant to lead client engagements on design and support of retirement plans. Develop new and existing clientele as well as support accounting and reorganization. Several years of pension consulting experience wanted. (#46295)

The post Consulting Leader, Pensions (Switzerland #46295) appeared first on DW Simpson.



View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/1SA1fBt


Consulting Leader, Pensions (Switzerland #46295)

Poll: Nate Silver vs. Donald Trump

Datahead vs. entertainer in chief.

Nate wrote about how important Iowa is to Trump/BERNie. I think Nate has more riding on Iowa than any candidate not named Cruz.


Poll: Nate Silver vs. Donald Trump

ACA: How much does changes plans after 1/31 raise rates?

I have a bronze HMO. My tax credit is higher than the premium, so I pay nothing. I want to upgrade with the same company to a silver plan, since the credit is enough to cover it either way.

Well, today is after the open deadline. My state exchange lets me shop for another plan, but it looks like I have to first cancel my existing plan before I can even see how much the silver plan is. It warns the rates may be higher. Anyone know how much the rates will likely go up if I try to enroll in the Silver plan today?

Thanks.


ACA: How much does changes plans after 1/31 raise rates?

Mr Robot

Anybody else been watching this TV series?


Mr Robot

RETAINED Senior Actuary, Casualty (Washington #46252)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Casualty Actuary Jobs

Large mutual insurance company seeks Senior Actuary with FCAS designation and solid supervisory experience. Candidates must have strong understanding of underwriting, Information Technology and Financial industries. Knowledge of a wide range of casualty actuarial techniques is required. (#46252)

The post RETAINED Senior Actuary, Casualty (Washington #46252) appeared first on DW Simpson.



View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/1PO0r6X


RETAINED Senior Actuary, Casualty (Washington #46252)

529 plan thread for 2016

Are 529 plans still a/the reasonably non-stupid way to save for kids' college? (E.g., no recent or looming law changes?)

RI's plan used to be considered just about the worst around, but there's been a recent change in management there, so maybe worth a look.

(Yeah there's some old threads I could've bumped. But I didn't.)


529 plan thread for 2016

How to search pictures on a smartphone?

Suppose I have 2,000 pictures saved on the camera roll of my iphone and I want to search a specific picture that I took a few months ago. I do not remember the exact date or even a narrow date range.

How do I go about finding it quickly and easily?


How to search pictures on a smartphone?

someone should do this for the US elections

Man legally changes his name to Above Znoneofthe so that he can be listed last on the ballot as "Znoneofthe, Above"

Quote:

In a phone interview, Znoneofthe said he's trying to give an option to people who are fed up with voting over and over for the main parties and seeing nothing really change.

"I'm aiming for all of the people who don't normally vote," said Znoneofthe, who has run in previous federal elections for the National Party and as an independent candidate under his former name.

"I thought, one of these days we should get 'none of the above' on a ballot," he said.


someone should do this for the US elections

4th suit forcing gone wrong

I held a really nice hand, especially given partner's 1C opener.
8
A1052
A104
AKJ87

The auction proceeds:
1C - 1H
1S - 2D (4th suit forcing)
2H - 3C (now, I've set clubs. Partner may think hearts is trumps, though.)
3H - 4D
4S - 6C

I decided that 6C should at least have some play. Partner may have thought hearts were trumps all along, and by leaping in clubs, that should remove the ambiguity as well.

Partner's hand was
AQ52
KQJ
Q63
1062

Q1. You be the judge. What was the worst bid? Who was more at fault?
Q2. What percentage of the time will you make 6C? Opening lead was the heart 9.
Q3. Would you rather be in 6H?

After this auction, we have now tweaked our agreements in two ways. First, we have agreed to rebid 1NT instead of 1S when we are specifically 4=3=3=3 shape. (and we've augmented our 2-way NMF auctions accordingly.) Second, we have agreed that responder's third call suggests the trump suit, rather than being a cue bid.


4th suit forcing gone wrong

March 7, 2016 Submission

Starting this thread for those aiming for the next DMAC submission deadline.


March 7, 2016 Submission

Bankruptcy and applying for actuarial positions?

If you have a good reason for filing bankruptcy (life circumstances, not just due to stupid spending), how negatively would it affect chances of being hired for actuarial positions?


Bankruptcy and applying for actuarial positions?

Ruin theory discussion in another part of the AO



Ruin theory discussion in another part of the AO

Please review EL resume

Hi, I will be graduating this May and I have no relative actuarial experience. Can you review my resume for formatting and content? Would I still be able to find an entry level position? Thank you!


Please review EL resume

Have you ever rejected a candidate because they failed a personality test?

Does anyone here take personality tests seriously when it comes to hiring? Is it not a waste of time and money? Do you administer them just because HR makes you? Or do you really think it's worth it?


Have you ever rejected a candidate because they failed a personality test?

Ruin Probability and distribution fit for different business lines

I believe we need calculate ruin probability for a company as a whole to determine the solvency?

Suppose a company deals with multiple business lines such as Motor, Fire, Health, Marine, WC, Aviation and etc, the claim paid amount (severity) which we are suppose to use to arrive at the compound distribution and the experience of each business line which decides which distribution fits best would be different for each one of them.

Considering the above scenario

1) Are we suppose segregate the premium, claims and surplus for each business line separately and decide which distribution fits each business line separately and there by arrive at ruin probability separately?

or

Can we use the entire company's claims data ignoring above issues to fit distribution?

2) Generally how many years historical claims data is required to fit distribution?

3) I am planning to ignore reinsurance and use only gross data.

4) I am also planning to use entire data to fit distribution and would ignore fits based on sample data for better results. A

Any suggestions?


Ruin Probability and distribution fit for different business lines

Tax Inversions Hinder Economy, Boost Large Caps

Credit to: Tax Evasion News : Tax Inversions Hinder Economy, Boost Large Caps

Quote:

QUIZ: Are Your Investment Fees Bleeding You Dry?
Further hurting U.S. companies is the practice of “double taxation.” When a U.S. corporation earns income in another country, it must pay taxes to that country. Then, the U.S. requires companies to pay our 35% rate on the profits that were already taxed in that other country. This is punitive and a disincentive to keeping businesses in the U.S. Most other countries only tax domestic income.

Maybe that’s why 20 U.S. companies have run screaming to relocate.

4 Vanguard Funds I’ll Never Sell

Buying these Vanguard funds was one of the most profitable decisions of my investing life. And they can change your life, too! You’ll find their names and complete details in my latest Special Report. It’s yours FREE when you click here.

And that’s why companies are keeping their foreign profits overseas. There’s about $2 trillion invested abroad. A fifth of that is held by Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL, GOOG) and five other technology firms.

Imagine what could be done if that was here. How many jobs would that create? How many shareholders would be rewarded with dividend increases that they, in turn, would spend or invest in our economy?
The question is, are they a good partner/steward in the economy?

What do they pay in prop taxes comparatively?

What do they pay in employee taxes?

How many other social 'benefits' which are really taxes, do corps pay that the employee deems necessary but never pays for?

and yes, all of those taxes that are not in plain view are paid by the corps/businesses, local or large entities.

when is enough taxation enough?


Tax Inversions Hinder Economy, Boost Large Caps

Spring 2016 Progress Thread

Who else is in?
How's everyone's study progress?


Spring 2016 Progress Thread

EL Resume Critique

I am currently in a yearlong actuarial internship and updated my resume in case any opportunities come up, within the company or otherwise. The company has made it clear they will not have positions for all the interns but is supportive of interns applying elsewhere throughout the internship.

I tried to focus more on "big picture" but I realize I may need some help tuning my bullets. I tried to balance not underselling my accomplishments with not exaggerating and would appreciate any feedback (primarily on my current internship as it is the only experience I have that is directly related to the field).

Another concern I had was if I should "name drop" software within the Work Experience bullets in addition to listing them in the Skills section. "Automated ABC..." vs "Automated ABC using XYZ..."

Lastly, I have read numerous posts and have talked to people at my company about it but what is your personal take on taking too many exams before getting a full time position? I have heard opinions from either side (get as many exams as you can vs 3/4/5 is too many, stop at X exams) and would be interested in hearing your side of it.

Thanks for your time and help.

Attached Images
File Type: pdf Resume.pdf (138.3 KB)


EL Resume Critique

Age Banding in Pricing

Looking for some help here.

I am currently working in a product development and pricing role in the Middle East. The regulator over here wants health insurance to incorporate age banding into our premium calculations, similar to individual products offered in the ACA exchanges. Could anyone provide some information or point in the right direction as to how age bands are developed and/or factored into pricing. The director of Product Development wants to incorporate the age bands into the current GLM used to price our health offerings.

Thanks in advance.


Age Banding in Pricing

exact vs actuarial exposures

Does anyone know of a short explanation why it is that when we calculate the deaths per exposure for exact exposure we obtain q from 1-e^-hz (seemingly from the use of the AN extimator but no source says so outright), but when we figure out the same ratio for actuarial exposures we are not finding the hazard rate (taking exponentiating (to get Sx) then getting q= 1-Sx)?

In other words, for exact exposures we have q = 1 - e^-d/e. For actuarial exposures we have q = (n) d/e.
We determine deaths per exposure units for both. But why is one the hazard rate and the other "q". Seems to me that they both should be the either the hazard rate or q since the only thing that is different between them is the number of months given to exposure of someone dies (to the end of the year). I can't see a difference in my ASM manual. I found another souce online (BPP) with a discussion about it but it says "it can be shown...." so it is not helpful.

Suppose I could memorize when to use each but I though someone would understand the reason why finding q is different based on how exposure for a death is counted.

Thanks.


exact vs actuarial exposures

What's the game called where you toss ping pong ball into beer cup?

And I think it's where if you miss you have to drink up

It's a game that college frats and 20-something studio apartment party get-togetherness in DC and NYC play on Friday/Saturday nights


What's the game called where you toss ping pong ball into beer cup?

Punished for scholarships and grants

Personal issue but I want to vent.

My situation in college is that my parents give me a set amount of money each month, any amount I earn or win in scholarships and grants above that is mine to keep. The money I get from my parents amounts to around $500 a month. To pay for everything I have won a substantial amount of scholarships over the years and havent taken out loans since freshman year.

My girlfriend has a similar situation. She hasn't gotten any scholarships or grants during her college career but probably gets about $1000 a month from her parents. She finally got a scholarship this year (because I helped her get it) and instead of her getting the money, her parents just proportionally decreased the amount of money they give her each month. So for her it was a net zero benefit. I am so pissed. What is the incentive to apply for scholarships if that is the case?


Punished for scholarships and grants

Term Insurance "problematic situation in the 80s"

If the unitary method were your entire reserve calculation, you could simply charge the PH very large premiums in future years so that your reserve would be next to nothing.


How is that a problem?
Shouldn't you have lower reserves if you have higher premiums?


Term Insurance "problematic situation in the 80s"

Selling FAP modules books

Hi, I'm selling the modules books for $350, shipping included.

1. Klugman, S., 2012. Understanding Actuarial Practice. Society of Actuaries.
2. Bellis, C., Klugman, S., Shepherd, J., and Lyon, R., (Second Edition).
Understanding Actuarial Management: The Actuarial Control Cycle. Institute of
Actuaries of Australia.
3. Brown, R. L. and Gottlieb, L. R., 2007,2009. Introduction to Ratemaking and Loss
Reserving for Property and Casualty Insurance (Third Edition), ACTEX
Publications, Inc.
4. Segal, S., 2011.Corporate Value of Enterprise Risk Management: The Next Step in Business Management, Wiley.

Thank you.


Selling FAP modules books

ASM Fourteenth Edition, Third Printing for SALE!!

If you are interested in a ASM 14th edition, third printing manual for just $110, please email me at clj23330491@gmail.com

Unwrap in a perfect condition, like brand new!!

Jack


ASM Fourteenth Edition, Third Printing for SALE!!

I just got shot in the chest, and I ain't even trippin'



I just got shot in the chest, and I ain't even trippin'

Deficiency Reserves

Calculate using a Poisson distribution right?



(poisson = fish de fish in sea reserves)





it was either that or what kind of reserves do fishermen have?
deficiency reserves


Deficiency Reserves

EOM3 DC Contribution Rates

Is anyone else struggling with the regulation on plan's minimum contribution rates? When I look at the Employee Data Spreadsheet Member Contribution Rate (Column J on the second tab) it is near impossible to have the contribution rate of the President be within 25% of the other Contribution Rates.

I am considering exempting the President and the others that own part of the company from the DC plan. Is anyone else considering this as an approach?

Thanks in advance.


EOM3 DC Contribution Rates

making sense of the study note

Is there any rational for the numbering, order, and cover-page color of the study notes from the SOA? Other than being in increasing order, I can't find much of a pattern.


making sense of the study note

FA DNMMR Common Mistakes

Hello all,

I just received my DNMMR on my first attempt at the FA and wanted to get a sense of what common mistakes I might be making. I've listed below my initial thoughts on why I DNMMR, and would love any feedback, especially from those that did MMR.

Overall
1. Being too wordy - mine came in around 10k words without tables, so I'm guessing I need to shorten it up and be more concise
2. Be more black and white in my recommendation. I probably put too many caveats and limitations on how applicable my price range was.
3. Went beyond the scope of questions in trying to consider all the risks of each task

Task 1 Specifics
1. Focused too much on frequency of errors as opposed to severity
2. Probably was unreasonable in considering how much it would actually take to fix any data errors

Task 2 Specifics
1. Maybe my range was too aggressive? I had a walkaway point using a risk metric that was at -10%?
2. I thought I did a solid job justifying my performance and risk metric (e.g. why PVP/IR instead of just PVP, why PVP/IR >10% instead of PVP/IR >0%, why CTE instead of VaR or StdDev, why CTE(90) instead of CTE(75) or CTE(95), why CTE(90) > -10% instead of CTE(90) > 0%), but maybe I was too detailed?
3. Maybe too detailed in my risk/reward analysis of pricing. I could have just said higher price = higher profit expectation, but also less likelihood of winning the work
4. Maybe should have just said a high and low price point instead of outlining 5 specific points along that range?

Task 3 Specifics
1. I only tested each assumption at my walkaway point, maybe should have tested it at the high and low ends?
2. I only tested each assumption with an X% and 2X% shock in either direction - maybe it makes more sense to have different shocks for different assumptions?
3. Maybe mention more about interdependence of assumptions? Maybe discuss anti-selection?
4. Have better factors excluded that I think are material? I came up with 3 but maybe that's not enough?

Task 4 Specifics
1. I didn't attempt to quantify the severity or likelihood of my key risks, but mentioned ways that we could do that. Maybe I should try to estimate those?
2. I listed more operational than strategic or financial risks in my RCD - maybe I need a more balanced count?
3. Maybe my key risks were too broad? For example, "Decreased credit usage leading to fewer miles purchased" could instead have been "Increase in penalty rates on CDL cardholders leading to fewer miles earned and a decrease in volume of Air Miles purchased"?

Task 5 Specifics
1. Maybe focusing too much on risk/reward of each policy change and not the risk/reward of implementing it in the model?
2. Should I have focused more on changes to the model and less on why each policy itself should have been changed or not?

Task 6 Specifics
1. Probably too wordy
2. Probably not clear enough of a recommendation (too many caveats on data quality, understanding of current risk appetites, etc.).
3. I'm guessing I should focus more on presenting a strong argument for why my range should be justified and leave out most of the limitations or discussions of limitations on my price range? I don't know what the appropriate balance is between providing a black and white answer and providing the most appropriate and accurate response that adequately discusses the risk associated with this price range?
4. Maybe consolidate my tables more into the report instead of just having them in an appendix at the end?


Task 7 Specifics
1. I made specific recommendations for assumption changes (e.g. Decrease the miles purchased assumption to 12 million miles). Should I have been less specific, and just said "Decrease the miles purchased assumption"?
2. I made mention of updating the model to match final deal structure, maybe this was beyond the scope of the question?

Like I said, any advice or discussion would be helpful (since we don't get any feedback until after the 2nd failed attempt). I'm fairly frustrated with myself, and the SOA for providing no feedback or model solution or anything. Thanks in advance, congratulations to all those who have MMR, and for those who DNMMR - I'll be retaking this on 2/19-2/23 if you want to join!


FA DNMMR Common Mistakes

MCCSR

I am just beginning Togo through the material using MATE. I am adding items to the lists based on the larger summary material and noticed all of the MCCSR mortality formulas are not on there, likely due to it all being factors. was wondering if we need to memorize every factor in this section (mostly GHS 108-14) and if so, is there any kind of "cheat sheet" provided at the seminar or is it worth me creating my own for this topic. Thanks!


MCCSR

Events

I'm going through chapter 2 and I'm having a very difficult time. I will go through the problem, only to find out that my events aren't even the same events shown in the solution manual.

Is there any insight as to go about defining what is an event and what isn't?


Events

Is Global Warming really the worst global threat?

First of all, a predictive decrease in the supply of land of flood-proof land in the future just means that buying and holding high land near coastal areas is a very good longterm investment

Where as, nuclear all out war means no safe haven, as does global pandemic, as does Zika

So is global warming really #1?


Is Global Warming really the worst global threat?

Baldrick Got Published by the US National Archives! Why Not Me?!

Quote:

Originally Posted by The German Guns by Pte S O Baldrick

Boom, boom, boom, boom

Boom, boom, boom

Boom, boom, boom, boom

Boom, boom, boom.

You have to hand it to them. This is one of his best works.



Baldrick Got Published by the US National Archives! Why Not Me?!

percentile matching

Why is it in some questions that ask for percentile matching at a certain percentage based on a set of data points.

For example percentile matching at 90%
from the following numbers 2, 3, 3, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 11, 12 (n numbers)

The solutions use a couple different methods, they either:
1. (.9)n
2. (.9)(n+1)
3. [(.9)n]rounded to the next whole number


what is the rule with when to use each one?

thanks!


percentile matching

I think Google and Yahoo strongly censor what we can search for.

I typed "Do Muslims like Hillary" in quotation marks into Google and Yahoo search. Both said there are zero results and to try it without quotation marks. Do they expect me to believe that no one on the vast internet ever asked that question anywhere? Looks like censorship to me. Without quotes, I get nothing but "Hillary says X about Muslims", but nothing about what they say about her. It is disturbing how every single result title looks the same.


I think Google and Yahoo strongly censor what we can search for.

Personality Test

When given a personality test during interview stage, should I answer in a way that is most accurate to me, or in a way that I think the employer would want me to be? For example, should I strongly agree with any statement that makes me seem like I love working and anything that makes me look like a leader?


Personality Test

Whole Life Reserves

C6 of the Valuation of Life Insurance Liabilities:

Post 1976 method - focus of the summary seems to be deficiency reserves. These occur whenever GP < NP.

Is this NP calculated using the methodology described under CRVM in section 5 or the NLP method?

Are the base product reserves calculated consistent with the methodology used to calculate NP?


Whole Life Reserves

NLP vs CRVM

C5 of the Valuation of Life Insurance Liabilities - I am reading in the ACE manual a note that says the most common methods of Valuation Methodologies are NLP and CRVM.

If the prescribed method for statutory valuation is NLP - then doesn't that make NLP CRVM? I thought CRVM was just whatever the commissioner requires for stat reserves?


NLP vs CRVM

Actuaries go 1-2-3 today at the club.

EVENT>Saturday Aft.Open Pairs |Page> 1
------------------------,---------------------,----------------------- ---------
DATE>January 30, 2016 |CLUB NO.>119446 | 01/30/2016 15:54
---------------------,-- --------------------- -----------,---------------------
DIR> Gregg Walsh |RATING>Grand National Teams - Club |GAME>VICTORY POINT
----------,---------- ,-------------------------,--------- ---------------------
ROUNDS> 4 |BDS/RD> 7 |MP LIMITS>None/2500/500 |CLUB>Mutual
---------- ----------- ------------------------- -------------------------------
TEAMS IN STRAT A=14/B=9/C=5
--------------------------,--------,----------------------,--------,-----,------------,-------,-------,------------------,
| Master | | Master | | Qualifiers | | | Overall Rank |
No Name | Points |Name | Points | Flt| A B C | Wins | Score | A B C |
-------------------------- -------- ---------------------- -------- ----- ------------ ------- ------- ------------------
Peter Wityk 1.80Red|John Gustafson 1.80Red| |
Des Moines IA 1.80Blk|Clive IA 1.80Blk| |
7 Douglas Stark 1.80Red|Klaymen, ACAS 1.80Red| A Q 4 | 67.00 1 . .
Des Moines IA 1.80Blk|West Des Moines IA 1.80Blk| |
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Gregg Walsh 1.35Red|Judith Wolf 1.35Red| |
West Des Moines IA 1.35Blk|West Des Moines IA 1.35Blk| |
10 Richard Freedman 1.35Red|Toby White,FSA 1.35Red| A Q 3 | 60.00 2 . .
Urbandale IA 1.35Blk|Des Moines IA 1.35Blk| |
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Newton Bowers, PhD 1.02Red|Rae Gene Burger 1.02Red| |
Clive IA 1.01Blk|Des Moines IA 1.01Blk| |
6 John Swartz 1.02Red|Margaret Brennan 1.02Red| A Q 2 | 51.00 3 . .
Des Moines IA 1.01Blk|West Des Moines IA 1.01Blk| |
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Actuaries go 1-2-3 today at the club.

How do large companies make money off Super Bowl Commercials?

I mean how is it possible they make more than hundreds of millions in new sales worth paying that much for they ad space?

When the cost per 30-second soundbite is $5-15 million dollars and with 25 between all the breaks and some being 90-second commercials, that's like $300 million on the promise of a few more dollars

How does this pay off exactly? It actually is a profitable investment?


How do large companies make money off Super Bowl Commercials?

Anyone make the switch to Windows 10 yet?

Has your office adopted Windows 10 yet?


Anyone make the switch to Windows 10 yet?

Have you ever tried fugu?

?


Have you ever tried fugu?

Advanced Spring 2016 Exam - Lesson 1

Hi all,

I will post up on my website over the next few months some topics that are available for download. Lesson 1 is available now.

To download the file:

Go to http://ift.tt/1BXqoM0 and click the 'Seminar Samples' link and it is under the 'Advanced Exam' heading on that page. When you click the link for lesson 1, click on the 'download this media' link on the top of the screen that appears.

Not sure how many of these lessons will be posted over the next few months. It will probably be based on student's questions or syllabus topics where an example might help clarify the topic.

This 1st one is an alternate solution to a prior exam question. The SOA made a comment regarding an alternate approach in their solution.

Fee free to reach out to me directly via my website with any questions regarding the lessons.

C


Advanced Spring 2016 Exam - Lesson 1

Pick Up Artist video-game

Hey folks! I'm creating a silly game where you go to bars and pick up chicks. Each attempt is a final-fantasy style battle, where you strategically use some basic social skills to convince women that they want to go home with you. It's tricky! because you have to take advantage of your strengths & avoid offending girls & avoid friend zones & other bros & jealousies & exes & previous hookups & STIs & all sorts of dramas.

Anyway I thought I'd ask the actuaries if they have any thoughts to contribute?!


Pick Up Artist video-game

Mahler PE17 Q17

Please could you help with this.

The question says that we have a 2-point mixture dist with 0.6 a SPP(α=3,θ=10) and 0.4 a SPP(α=2,θ=10). We want the Ε( Χ / Χ>20).

I tried to solve it using

Ε( Χ / Χ>20) = 0.6 Ε( Χ / Χ>20) + 0.4 Ε( Χ / Χ>20)
using the formulas for the first conditional moment of a SPP(α=3,θ=10) and for the second of a SPP(α=2,θ=10).
Also I used Ε( Χ / Χ>20) = { E(X) - E(X^20) + 20P(X>20) } / P(X>20)
And using all these end up getting a value of 34 (34 = 0.6 * 30 + 0.4 * 40).
However the right answer is 35.71 and Mahler solves it using calculus. Why is my approach not valid??

Thanks


Mahler PE17 Q17

NYT Endorses Hillary Clinton

Interesting development. But not all that surprising.

Basically they stated that while they like Bernie, they don't find his policy recommendations realistic.


NYT Endorses Hillary Clinton

Spring 16 Core Exam - Lesson #1

Hi all,

I will post up on my website over the next few months some topics that are available for download. Lesson 1 is available now.

To download the file:

Go to http://ift.tt/1BXqoM0 and click the 'Seminar Samples' link and it is under the 'Core Exam' heading on that page. When you click the link for lesson 1, click on the 'download this media' link on the top of the screen that appears.

Not sure how many of these lessons will be posted over the next few months. It will probably be based on student's questions or syllabus topics where an example might help clarify the topic.

Fee free to reach out to me directly via my website with any questions regarding the lessons.

C


Spring 16 Core Exam - Lesson #1

Will stocks plunge next week?

4 reasons I think there's downward pressure ahead

Reason 1: What we saw Friday is a normal counter ralley Eventhough the primary moving avg trend is down (we had a moving average crossover between the 50-day and 200-day moving avg for the S&P500 and it's far from being undone). The counter ralley was further exacerbated by end of month mutual funds rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios for the month of January, since stocks plunged for the month. (After a counter ralley and a bear market direction, it's a chance for short-term investors to do some profit taking)

Reason 2: The news that brought on Friday's ralley was in part
BAD economic news US GDP underperformed expectations as did employment growth. The reason it forced a ralley was reduces the Fed's likekiness of hiking rates further. So once speculation is the FED is out of bullets, this will be bad fast.

Reason 3: Japan's negative interest rate decision indicates that most Feds, including ours, have run out of conventional options and once the last straw...negative interest rates fail, and we are in recession...it's going to be unprecedentedly bad

Reason 4: Debt to earnings in US companies is at a 12-year high

Thoughts?

Not to mention energy market is extremely volatile


Will stocks plunge next week?

Extended Warranties and Rescissions

There is a thread on the AO regarding tech companies, insurance, and in particular their extended warranties that reminded me of my experience with Hewlett Packard several years ago. I wondered then whether other people had a problem like mine, but never thought to ask the AO.

Here is part of my letter to HP

"I purchased a laptop with a 3-year warranty in Sept07, and in Oct10 I bought another warranty, for 12 months. This last warranty would normally expire in Oct11. However when I called last week about actual and potential problems with my laptop, I was told that HP has stopped acquisition of replacement parts effective May11 and therefore warranty servicing was impossible. HP is in the process of refunding a prorata portion of the cost of the warranty.

So for this particular warranty you act as follows
- The cost is $15 per month. (It's paid all at once, up front, but that's not really relevant.)
- Up to May11, you provided warranty coverage and product service. The issue is what happens on/after May11.
- For people who do not have a warranty claim, you keep the $ 15 per month.
- For people who do have a claim, you give back the $15 for the month of claim and for any remaining months where you already collected the $15.

This is not really insurance or warranty coverage or anything of the sort...you are just taking money, sometimes keeping it, sometimes giving it back, but never providing the service you promised to provide."

I got no response there, and then tried NY AG and Calif DCA, where I also got no reply. Anyway, this is from my email to them:

"A similar topic, with far greater harm to individual consumers, involved the alleged action of some health insurers with respect to rescissions. You may recall that some insurers issued policies readily, and then were said to rescind policies quickly in the case of those individuals who had large medical expenses. The two circumstances are very similar - in each case, the consumer thinks he has insurance until he has a claim. A premium refund is small consolation."

Has anyone had a similar experience with respect to extended warranties? Or seen other examples of what I would call the “rescission fraud?” I tried some back-of-the-envelope calculations to estimate the profit from this sort of fraud, using vague guesses regarding the number of people who keep their PCs for several years, etc. FWIW, I managed to convince myself that the number is in the $$ multiple millions.

As a sort of odd postscript to my own experience, I received another email from HP in Sept11, described below:

"Finally, I got an email today from HP that just freakin' blows me away. They want to sign me up for another year of warranty "coverage," even though they just refunded 5 months or so of premium for the prior year of 'coverage.'"


Extended Warranties and Rescissions

Deflation

This is kind of political and kind of financial. Probably more financial since most of our country is not sophisticated enough to understand some of the problems with deflation, but does anyone see deflation as a problem to be concerned about right now? I am looking at basically every part of the world's economy except the US (maybe ours too after yesterdays GDP report) slowing down. The bottom has dropped out of almost every commodity market and every time they start to increase they crash back down with massive supply glut reports. Oil is the main one, but most of the metals, coal, natural gas, everything is around 10 year lows. I think China is going to double down on deflating their currency to try to solve their problems which will make their good cheaper here. Population growth in the world is slowing. I guess I see a lot of arrows pointing toward deflation on our horizon. Japan has been dealing with it for a while now and it is basically soul crushing if you have debt or are working in an industry that sells goods. Anyway just wondering if anyone else sees this as a problem or has a solution to the problem?


Deflation

PAK Special Sale – 15% Off All Products!

We want to help students to pass this exam! This is our goal and we are committed to it!

In order to let more students try our PAK products, we have decided to offer all students 15% OFF all of our products from now until February 7th, 2016.

Benefits to PAK Study Manual
Many students PASSED this ERM exam by using our PAK products because we know what is needed to pass this difficult exam:

1. Solid Study Products: We have all the other competitors offer.

2. Tons of practice questions and mock questions: 900+ practice questions / 100+ mock questions in the PAK Exam Aid and many more.

3. Detailed Videos: Our videos cover the entire ERM syllabus with great explanations on confusing concepts/calculations.

4. Strong Instructor Support: As you all know, we have strong instructor support for all our students. Paul and I work together to answer students' questions and provide useful insights to PASS this exam.

Please feel free to send us an email to get more details on how to get the 15% off discount! The time is clicking! Don't miss out! :tup:



Please feel free to read students' comments about us (Fall 2015 exam) and compare our products to others.

http://ift.tt/1ZZRM7j
Quote:

Originally Posted by naturalblogarithm (Post 8380435)
Passed! No more exams! Thank you PAK! I'd give you the MVP for this exam, but my wife gets it for watching the kids to allow study time (it's an honor just to be nominated, though).


http://ift.tt/1ZZRM7l
Quote:

Originally Posted by Actuary_Bro (Post 8380432)
Had to have someone else check with all the volume but passd!!!

Eddy & Paul , thank you! PAK is great at covering the material and helping for first time FSA exam takers.


http://ift.tt/1ZZRNrS
Quote:

Originally Posted by tennoji (Post 8380667)
Passed on 2nd attempt. Used PAK. Thanks Eddy!!!!!!! Studied really hard on this one (probably harder on any of the prelims). Does anyone know how long it takes to have the exam results processed and be recognized as finally having the CERA credential?


http://ift.tt/1ZZRNrU
Quote:

Originally Posted by Nyorky2428 (Post 8380320)
Passed! PAK is definitely worth it for this exam


http://ift.tt/1ZZRNI8
Quote:

Originally Posted by langstafftigerpizza (Post 8380335)
passed. at least some good news. My investment has been nose-diving since I took the exam.

PS- I used PAK study manual. Will recommend to my students.



PAK Special Sale – 15% Off All Products!

Please critique my resume

Hi, there will be a career fair event happening soon, one of the companies that I am interested in deals with P&C. This is the resume I prepared for them, any advice/criticism that you have is appreciated.

Attached Files
File Type: doc resume help.doc (34.0 KB)


Please critique my resume

Do you trust Hillary to defeat ISIS?

She sure talks the talk. With Obama in office, presumably in agreement with her, and with a pro-war republican congress, why hasn't Hillary talked them into defeating ISIS already? Why do we have to vote her in first before she takes any action? I find it hard to believe that superpowers are being pushed around by this group. Something smells fishy, like a pure election ploy.

Thoughts?


IMO, simply letting the Arabs clean up their own mess is not good enough. We should be talking to the stable countries in the area to convince them to help out or not fund ISIS. We should train and light arm the locals who are being attacked. We should provide drone air support. We should cut off recruitment ads and replace them with footage of what those people are doing. I don't think the victims are strong enough to fight ISIS off on their own. Hillary sounds great, but she also sounds like just words, if she won't act until after she is elected.


Do you trust Hillary to defeat ISIS?

You, Me and the Apocalypse

Pretty good for a S1E1


You, Me and the Apocalypse

XP Actuarial Video Lessons

XP Actuarial Video Lessons:

The Study Manual includes 10 videos that cover the important concepts on the exam. We have released the first video to you for free. This video covers Value at Risk and aggregates the relevant material from various readings on the exam relating to VaR.

Accompanying the video is a summary that details all the relevant material covered in the video. The strategy for the videos is to read the summary, watch the video and then do all the practice questions relating to the readings covered in the video.

The video has been uploaded to our Youtube channel for you to view. Remember that with Youtube, you can change the speed of the video. Simply click the settings button -> speed -> and then choose your speed (normal, 1.25, 1.5, 2).

I have also attached the accompanying summary notes for this video Attachment 35114.

When coupled with the Study Manual and Practice Questions, the Video Lessons take your studying to the next level!

As always, I am always here to answer any of your questions. I am dedicated to creating a quality product that will help you pass this exam.

Thanks and good luck studying!

Attached Images
File Type: pdf XP Actuarial Tutorial 1 - Value at Risk.pdf (245.9 KB)


XP Actuarial Video Lessons

How challenging do you find your work?

I'm in my first actuarial role and I'm starting to feel that, one, the role is derivative from traditional actuarial roles and, two, the work is not challenging enough. For example, I have not yet worked on pricing, reserving, or modeling in any capacity, nor do my supervisors (there are other departments in the company that do). We mainly provide "actuarial support" for other non-actuarial departments which translates to creating a ton of reporting. I'm starting to hate making reports and am curious about a more traditional actuarial experience. Is pricing/reserving just as boring after the first two years? I've been contemplating getting out of the field, and at the very least, switching jobs. What has your experience been like?


How challenging do you find your work?

Moda in Portland

no capital, state take control.

http://ift.tt/1nUGSDO


Moda in Portland

The 2016 Iowa Caucus - Democrat and Republican

Which Presidential candidate supporters will brave the cold, literally?
http://ift.tt/1nUGS6P


The 2016 Iowa Caucus - Democrat and Republican

PAK Online Seminar for ERM Spring 2016

Hello all,
I've hijacked some other threads, but I just wanted to take a minute and start a base for the PAK Online Seminar for ERM Spring 2016! I already know many of you on the forum, but I'd like to introduce myself to those I don't.

A little about myself

My name is Paul Peterson, and I've been helping students pass exams for about 3 years now. I passed my exams and got my FSA using PAK, and thought so highly of the material that they provided, that I couldn't wait to start helping get other students through these exams. I started work on the Finance Track (CFE/SDM), focusing on the Online Seminars, and have recently joined Eddy in the fight to help students pass ERM!

The thing I have taken the most pride in over the years is the close relationships I have with the candidates. Please, feel free to email me, PM me, or chat on this forum or the PAK forum, and I promise I will promptly and thoroughly reply; I'd love to help out, clear up any tricky topics, or give advice. I'm confident that the students I have worked with in the past would agree that I will stop at nothing to help you get a passing grade :)

A little about the seminar

The purpose of this seminar is to solidify and enhance your knowledge of the readings, and most importantly, give you the best chance to pass the exam. We will review all of the key concepts, do examples, and discuss how the readings could show up on the exam.

The PAK Online Seminar includes:
  1. Over 70 video lectures to clarify and explain the key concepts/calculations in each syllabus reading (Core + Extension) and past exam questions
  2. Analyze the new case study (e.g. how to answer the case-study-related questions)
  3. Discuss the past exam questions (e.g. exam techniques, how to score)
  4. Contain condensed outlines for each reading on the syllabus
  5. Include practice questions to test your knowledge
  6. Review the lectures and study at your own pace
  7. On-demand video library compatible with smartphones (iPhone, Android, etc), tablets (iPad, Android), and PC/Mac devices.
  8. Email support (ask as many questions as you can think of!)
  9. Free access for 2nd attempt (only for those who scored 2-5)

A little about the exams

Statistically speaking, most students taking the ERM exam are taking it as their first FSA exam. Many are not prepared for the change in difficulty and style compared to the preliminary exams. Here are a couple of things to keep in mind:
  1. Make a schedule and try to stick to it. You are required to read a lot of material, and falling behind is the surest way to hurt your chances. Try the PAK Suggested Study Schedule for a good guide.

  2. Look at some of the past exams and exam solutions. Don't worry if you don't know the answers yet. Take some time to get familiar with the types of questions you might see.

  3. Practice writing. This might seem like a strange one, but many students are surprised by how hard it is to write for such a long time. Build those muscles!

  4. When in doubt, ask questions. I'm always here to help!

If you have any questions at all (about the exam, about our products, about life in general), please email me at paulpeterson@pakstudymanual.com or talk to me here. And as you are starting to study and think about the exam, always remember, you can do it!


PAK Online Seminar for ERM Spring 2016